Why Is the Gold Price Falling? October 2026 Review

October was gold’s worst month of the year. The ounce lost more than 6%, and on 30 October the price hit a one-year low. Here is what happened, why, and what it meant for prices in Tbilisi.

The question we’ve heard most at the counter this past week is simple: “Why is gold falling?” Some people already hold bars and are uneasy. Others are wondering whether this is the moment to buy.

This piece sticks to the facts: how far the price fell, what pushed it down, and what happened to prices at Gold.ge. No forecasts. Nobody can tell you reliably where gold goes next, and that includes us.

01October by the numbers

Gold started the month above $4,200 an ounce and finished it at $3,884, about 6.6% below the September close. It was the second losing month in a row and the steepest monthly drop of 2026.

Sources: ShareTrader, Conservative Daily News, Gold Stock Canada.

That leaves gold roughly 30% below its January peak. Silver had it worse: it dropped under $50 and lost about 18% over the month.

02Oil, inflation and the Fed

Gold pays no interest. When deposits and bonds pay a high rate, holding gold costs you more in lost income, so some money moves elsewhere. That is what happened in October, one step leading to the next.

After a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, oil jumped and Brent went above $110. Pricier fuel fed into inflation. US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, and annual inflation climbed from 3.4% to 3.7%, with petrol behind more than half of the monthly rise.

The Federal Reserve had already raised rates in September. On 28 October it held them at 3.75–4%, but two members wanted another increase. By 30 October markets put the chance of a December hike at around 75%, and stronger-than-expected US growth only firmed that view.

Sources: Kitco / Reuters, TradingKey, ShareTrader.

0330 October: down more than 3% in a day

Much of the month’s loss came in the final session. On Friday gold fell over 3% and broke below $3,900.

Analysts also pointed to the sell-off in tech stocks. When people take big losses on shares, some sell gold to cover them. It sounds odd, but gold often gets sold precisely because it is so easy to sell.

Physical demand was weak too. Buyers in India held back hoping for lower prices, and demand in China stayed muted.

04What it meant in lari

The lari price depends on two things: the dollar price of an ounce and the USD/GEL exchange rate. Here is how the price of 1 gram of 999.9 gold moved at Gold.ge over the past week:

Source: gold price at Gold.ge, 2 November 2026.

Over the week a gram got 4.5% cheaper, with almost 12 lari of that on 30 October alone. This morning the price edged back up.

For a large purchase, the bar price matters more. A 100 g Britannia bar costs 34,270 ₾ today, a 3.8% premium over the gold inside it. A 1 g bar carries a 20.5% premium, so putting a big sum into small bars is an expensive way to buy.

→ Gold price · Gold bars · Gold coins

05Should I buy now or wait?

Honestly, we don’t know whether the price will fall further. A lot depends on the Fed’s December decision. A rate hike could keep pressure on gold; cooling inflation would change the picture.

People who buy gold for the long run usually don’t try to catch the bottom. Some split the amount and buy in a few rounds. When you pay online, the price is locked at the moment of payment, and our prices update roughly every 10 seconds.

One more thing to keep in mind: if you buy for the short term, you can lose money. Gold.ge buys back bars and coins that were bought from us, but at the market price minus a margin. We don’t buy jewellery or gold bought elsewhere.

These are facts, not investment advice.

→ Gold vs real estate in Tbilisi · How large investors buy gold

06What people ask us most